SCORES
Checking the public boards · not a grade
MLB DAILY REPORT · DIVISION SERIES
Saturday, October 3, 2026. Built Friday evening ET from captures at 7:35 PM. Official plays: 0. Watches are not tickets.
Four Division Series openers. Three games are modeled. Atlanta at Los Angeles is dark: no Braves starter, and Tarik Skubal has no line, so there are no model rows. 43 of 54 hitters grade below a typical game. Milwaukee is the only lineup above zero.
FEATURED
SD @ MIL · 8:30 PM ET · AMERICAN FAMILY FIELD
7.0
Projected strikeouts in 5.9 innings. 30.2% rate, the high on the slate.
55.0%
Model chance of 7 or more. 6 or more is 69.9%.
9 of 9
Padres graded for more strikeouts. Average +58.4.
4/4
Checks agree. Lineups are not posted. Early hooks are not in the model.
WATCH
WATCH 1 · 8:30 PM · Brewers vs Padres
7.0 K in 5.9 innings. 4+ is 91.8%. 5+ is 82.7%. 6+ is 69.9%. 7+ is 55.0%. 8+ is 40.1%. Padres run-creation average is −34.2, the coldest club.
WATCH 2 · 8:30 PM · then the Padres pen
Every Brewer grades above a typical game, average +13.3. The only club above zero. 8 of 9 home-run grades are positive, average +11.8. Walks are 9 of 9 positive. Ray projects 3.2 innings and walks 13.9% of batters. The Padres pen covers 63% of the innings at a 28.1% strikeout rate. American Family Field trims runs 9%.
WATCH 3 · 6:30 PM · Rays vs Yankees
6.2 K in 5.6 innings. 6+ is 58.6%. 7+ is 42.6%. All 9 Yankees grade for more strikeouts, average +21.3. New York scored 18 runs in two Wild Card wins. The model grades this matchup, not that form.
SLATE
| Time | Game | Arms | Park | Runs | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:00 PM | CHW @ CLE | H. Smith opener vs P. Messick | Runs −16% · HR −36% | 6.1 | CHW 2.9, CLE 3.2. Modeled. |
| 4:00 PM | ATL @ LAD | TBA vs T. Skubal, no line | Runs +6% · HR +24% | — | Dark. No model rows. |
| 6:30 PM | NYY @ TB | G. Cole vs D. Rasmussen | Runs −6% · HR −4% | 6.6 | NYY 3.1, TB 3.5. Modeled. |
| 8:30 PM | SD @ MIL | R. Ray vs J. Misiorowski | Runs −9% · HR −4% | 6.4 | SD 2.8, MIL 3.6. Modeled. |
PARKS
| Venue | Runs | HR | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodger Stadium | +6% | +24% | The only boost. Dark game, so nothing on it is graded. |
| Tropicana Field | −6% | −4% | Quiet. Weather parts are about flat. |
| American Family Field | −9% | −4% | Stadium-driven. Setting for the Brewers watch. |
| Progressive Field | −16% | −36% | Weather-driven. The forecast can move before 1:00 PM. |
ARMS
| Arm | IP | Proj K | 6+ | Opp K | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Misiorowski | 5.9 | 7.0 | 69.9% | +58.4 · 9/9 | Aligned · 4/4 |
| D. Rasmussen | 5.6 | 6.2 | 58.6% | +21.3 · 9/9 | Aligned · 4/4 |
| P. Messick | 5.6 | 6.2 | 58.6% | +12.7 · 9/9 | Aligned · 4/4 |
| G. Cole | 4.3 | 3.7 | 17.0% | +22.9 · 9/9 | Short leash · 2/4 |
| R. Ray | 3.2 | 2.7 | 5.7% | −12.9 · 0/9 | Split · 0/4 |
| H. Smith, opener | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.7% | +37.7 · 9/9 | First trip only · 2/4 |
Also on the radar, not a ticket: Parker Messick strikeouts, 6.2 projected, 58.6% for 6 or more, a thinner margin than the top two. All nine White Sox home-run grades are −32 or lower, and Progressive Field cuts home runs 36%. Chicago projects 2.9 runs. Starters were checked against MLB.com and Baseball Savant. Probable is not confirmed.
